what the population did
Sixty seconds of a test block: every recorded unit, the chosen model’s one-step forecast of it, and the error between them. Brighter means more spikes.
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These are one-step forecasts: each 50 ms bin is predicted from the true two seconds before it, then summed to 100 ms for display. A forecast of a rate is smoother than the counts it predicts by construction, because the Poisson component of spiking cannot be forecast. Judge it by the slow structure it tracks, not by the speckle it misses.